The problem of induction

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In the 18th Century, David Hume made an observation about causality and induction. We can’t say with absolute certainty that there is cause and effect, so we must try to figure out what we think caused the event, and then apply that to future events. If we’re wrong, it doesn’t affect the past, just future events. So instead of trying to say “the sun rises” because it always has, the probability of the sun not rising is just as plausible. The idea suggests that inductive reasoning – deriving a general law from recurring instances – is logically invalid. This curated a new issue for scientific study since it relies on induction and empirical observations. Hume’s ‘problem of induction’ posed a challenge to the basis of modern scientific methodology and continued to do so until a solution was suggested by Karl Popper in the 20th century. Hume addressed the issue in a congenial way and said that we must deal with ‘hopeful probabilities’ instead of certainties and let custom lead our way.

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