When prophecy fails

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In 1954, psychologist Leon Festinger came across a group prophesizing the imminent end of the world. He saw it as an opportunity to study cognitive dissonance. The cult leader, Dorothy Martin, believed they’d been chosen by aliens to be saved from the disaster but instead found themselves trapped in a strange world where everyone else was dead. Festinger decided to conduct a close study of the members of the cult, before, during, and after the predicted apocalypse. He wrote a book about his findings, titled When Prophecy Fails, published in 1956.

Many of Martin‘s followers had sold up his belongings and left their jobs in readiness, but 21st December passed without incident. According to Festinger’s Theory of Cognitive Dissonance, rather than changing minds, failure of the prediction caused a reinterpretation of facts. Martin insisted the Earth was spared because of the activities, the members did not lose trust but they believed even more fervently.

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